Economy

Crisis in Argentina could neutralize the effects of FGTS funds on Brazil's GDP

Analysis of economists in Itaú considers the importance of the neighboring country in Brazilian exports

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  • Experts at Itaú bank warned of the impact of consecutive drops in industrial production in Argentina could have in Brazil exports;
  • Including neutralize the effects of the release of the FGTS funds.

Economists working at Itaú bank explain that the propagation of the crisis in Argentina could diminish the positive results–on Brazil’s GDP until 2020–of the planned release of the FGTS funds in September. The analysis was published by the Brazilian newspaper Valor Econômico.

Even if the deceleration of China and the United States is more damaging to Brazil’s recovery than the crisis in Argentina, experts at the bank warned of the impact of consecutive drops in industrial production could have here.

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The weight of China in Brazilian exports, says the economist Luka Barbosa to the journal, is 30%, that of the US is 20%, and that of Argentina is only 5%. The problem is that for every 5% decline in industrial production in Argentina, Brazilian exports could fall 25%, an impact of 0.2 percentage points in the GDP.

“That, in addition to the FGTS, could have an effect on GDP close to zero,” says Mário Mesquita, chief economist of Itaú, to Valor Econômico.